No. 163 WTC Tokyo Joint Lecture

TOKYO, JAPAN - On June 18th, the 163rd joint seminar was organized in the World Trade Center Tokyo Building, and was co-sponsored by WTC Tokyo Inc., WTC Building Co. Ltd., and WTC Tokyo Club. Mr. Hirofumi Hanaoka, director general of National Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Bureau of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism was invited as a guest speaker. About 70 guests attended the seminar.

At the beginning, Mr. Akira Kojima, Chairman of WTC Tokyo Inc. gave an opening address, placing emphasis on the significance of national land development programs, which are directly linked to the real economy, not money economy, of Japan. In the past two decades, Japan has been dependent on monetary and fiscal policies to sustain our economy, and we did not see any economic policy which aimed to create the future course of Japan. It is quite meaningful to have an opportunity to know the “Grand design of Japan’s land development programs toward 2050” at this timing. 

Then, Mr. Hanaoka gave a lecture on “Grand Design of Japan’s land development strategy”. The summary of his lecture is as follows:

A long term strategy
The finish line of the “Grand Design of Japan’s land and development strategy” (the Grand Design) is the year of 2050, 35 years from now. We are requested to show the plans which are really necessary and we need to carry out those plans steadily.

Need to stop concentration to Tokyo
We count 1㎢ as one mesh when we discuss national land. The number of mesh in which people live is about 180,000, covering around half of national land. In 60% of them, population in 2050 is estimated to become less than half of that in 2010, and people will not reside in 20% of them anymore. It is generally believed that the urban area which has the population of 300,000 or more could attract modern commercial facilities such as “Starbucks Coffee”. There are 64 urban areas with a population of over 300,000, outside the 3 mega urban areas. In 2050, only 45 are estimated to keep the population of that size. Measures should be taken to encourage people to stay in local areas, where the birth rate is relatively higher than in Tokyo. And further, the shortage of care houses for the elderly is likely to be a serious problem in Tokyo, where the number of old persons is expected to increase rapidly toward 2050. 

Competitiveness of international city
According to IMF, Tokyo ranks #4 in the ranging of competitive international cities. I hope Tokyo becomes N#1 in the Tokyo Olympic Year of 2020, as London did in 2008. Labor cost gap between Japan and developing countries is narrowing. We may expect some production facilities to come back to Japan, if we could increase our productivity. Tokyo does not need the current size of population to become more competitive in quality.

Need to cope with great earthquake and shortage of food and energy
One of the very important challenges in the Grand Design is to prepare solid measures against great earthquakes. We know what needs to be done, but it is nearly impossible to do so in a practically overpopulated area such as Tokyo. Securing water, food and energy is another important issue in the Grand Design. Taking sharp increase in world population into account, we need to prepare for the situation where we are not able to import enough food by just paying money. Policies to promote export of agricultural products are to be taken in the Grand Design as well.

Tokyo now and 30 years ago 
Though the appearances of Tokyo may not be very much different from those of 30 years ago, the big difference is the invisible information system. We are in the time when people and things are connected by various devices through information networks. And in 2050, data traffic would be 4 times as big as now. Measures to integrate those information networks in land development policies are required in the Grand Design.

Compact city and networking
In order to provide various services effectively, concept of compact city is necessary, and at the same time, urban areas with a population of 300,000 need to be maintained by proper networking among neighboring cities. For example, both Yonago and Matsue in Sanin district, will not be able to maintain a population of over 300,000. However, if the two cities are able to work as the same urban area by networking, the combined population will be bigger than 500,000.

Favorable conditions for working
Encouraging women to work outside does not lead to low birth rate; rather, birth rate rises when more women are working. Where there are favorable conditions for women to work outside, such as easy commuting distance, the birth rate is also high.

New Chuo Liner Express Line
The world biggest super mega region will be appearing by the completion of New Chuo Liner Express line, which will connect Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka. The regions which will benefit from it, in addition to those 3 areas, includes Tohoku.

Foreigners staying long in Japan
With regard to tourism, measures are to be taken to receive foreigners not only in Tokyo, but throughout Japan, encouraging them to stay longer by increasing amounts of foreign students, promotion of medical tourism, and international business activities. 

Policies to decrease Tokyo population
As a new style of life, there are some people who work in two different places, one in the big urban area like Tokyo, and another in a rural district. It may be possible to think about the tax advantages by allowing dual domicile for those people. To utilize infrastructure to encourage people to go out from Tokyo is worth considering as well. It is possible to set proper charges for toll roads to decrease the number of vehicles coming into the center of Tokyo by encouraging drivers to use cheaper roads that runs in the outskirts of the city. By all those measures combines, movements of people away from Tokyo will occur naturally. And by connecting the real physical space with the space of intelligence and information, we will make a system to always create new positive movements.

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